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The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its 2020-21 world grain production estimate by 1 million tons, but it is still forecasting 2.226 billion tons all-time.
The Oct. 29 Grain Market Report noted a monthly reduction in maize (corn) output prospects, which were partly offset by increased estimates for wheat, sorghum and rye.
Year-over-year, the IGC is predicting world grain production will increase 40 million tons. The increase largely is driven by record corn output but also bigger harvests of wheat, sorghum, oats and rye. The United States and Brazil are expected to have larger corn crops with smaller totals anticipated in the EU, Ukraine, Argentina, South Africa and China.
Consumption is expected to reach a new high of 2.223 million tons, an increase of 29 million tons compared with last year, the IGC said. Carryover stocks will see only a modest rise of 3 million tons, to 619 million tons, due to a contraction in corn.
“The drop in maize stocks is mainly tied to a further drawdown in China, but with those in the EU also seen at an unusually low level,” IGC said in the report. “In contrast, following larger harvests, accumulations are foreseen in the US and Brazil.”
World trade in 2020-21 is forecast to increase 4 million tons month-over-month, to 403 million, mainly on higher figures for wheat (including larger imports by China and Pakistan) and corn (the EU and China).
World soybean production is estimated to increase 9% in 2020-21 to a peak of 370 million tons. Chinese feed demand is a major reason for the uptick, but gains are likely across a range of smaller consumers, the IGC said. Find more...
Source: Online/SZK
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