Global rice production forecast for 2024/25 rises to a record high

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Global rice production for the 2024/25 season has been revised upwards by 3.1 million tonnes to a record 535.8 million tonnes (milled basis), nearly 3% higher than last year.

According to the Rice Outlook: April 2025 report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global ending stocks for 2024/25 have increased by 1.7 million tonnes from the previous forecast, reaching 183.2 million tonnes. These stock revisions are largely concentrated in Southeast Asia, with upward adjustments for Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

India accounts for the bulk of the year-on-year increase in global ending stocks, with its reserves up by 1.5 million tonnes compared to the previous year. China’s ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to remain unchanged at 103.5 million tonnes—the largest in the world—comprising 56% of total global rice stocks.

The report also highlights that global rice supplies for 2024/25 are projected to reach a record 715.3 million tonnes, an increase of 3.1 million tonnes from the previous forecast. This represents a year-on-year growth of 12.3 million tonnes and marks the second consecutive annual rise.

The global rice trade forecast for the 2025 calendar year has been raised by 2% to 59.7 million tonnes, just 0.2 million tonnes below last year’s record of 59.9 million. Export projections for Cambodia, India, and Pakistan have been increased, more than offsetting reductions for China, Thailand, and the United States. On the import side, 2025 projections suggest increases of at least 400,000 tonnes in Bangladesh, China, and Nepal, while imports by the European Union are expected to decline by at least 150,000 tonnes

Indonesia’s rice imports are forecast to decline significantly, by nearly 3.9 million tonnes to just 800,000 tonnes, due to substantial domestic production and high carry-over stocks. The United States is projected to import a record 1.525 million tonnes in 2025. The Philippines and Vietnam are expected to remain the world’s largest rice importers.

As for exports, the report forecasts that Thailand’s rice exports in 2025 will decline to 7 million tonnes, down by approximately 500,000 tonnes or 29.2% year-on-year. In contrast, India is expected to export 24 million tonnes, an increase of 33.9%. Pakistan’s exports are projected at 5.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 15.3%, while Cambodia is forecast to export 3.6 million tonnes, down 2.7%.

Source: Online/GFMM