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Commodity markets are looking toward [the recent] WASDE, or World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, following a more than 20-cent drop in corn futures prices.
In its quarterly Grain Stocks Report on Sept. 30, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated U.S. corn stocks at nearly 2.1 billion bushels, which is up 35 percent from a year earlier and a seven-year high. Scott Stiles, extension agricultural economics program associate for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, said the increase comes from estimates for feed and residual use being revised lower.
“December 2026 corn futures dropped 21¼ cents following the report’s release and closed at $5.00 ¾,” Stiles said.
However, the market calmed after the initial shock and has been trading “sideways,” or in a cooler manner, in recent sessions—typical ahead of the monthly WASDE, Stiles said.
“Ahead of the Grain Stocks report, analysts were looking for September 1 corn stocks of 1.91 billion bushels,” he said. “The actual number came in at 2.095 billion. The significance here is the 2.095 billion bushels will become the adjusted 2026/27 beginning stocks in the upcoming October WASDE.”
Stiles said, “the calmer, more sideways trading is an indication traders and market analysts are trying to figure out if USDA could offset the higher beginning stocks in some way.
“The most likely way this could happen would be with lower production,” he said. “Some analysts expect a 1-2-bushel reduction in the U.S. average corn yield in the months ahead. Shaving 2 bushels off the U.S. yield would completely offset the 173-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks.”
As for farmers, “it may be worth it to see the results of the October WASDE before making any corn marketing decisions,” Stiles said.
Uncertainty About Corn Yields
Arkansas’ corn harvest was 98 percent complete as of Sept. 27.
“By the time the Grain Stocks report was released and the damage done, nearly all of the Arkansas corn crop was out of the field,” Stiles said. “However, unpriced bushels in storage would see some negative impact from the Sept. 30 report.”
In September, USDA projected the 2026/27 U.S. season average farm price for corn at $4.80 per bushel, up from $4.15 in 2025/26. Currently, December 2026 corn futures trade near $5 per bushel. Basis for December delivery to Mississippi River terminals is 30 cents over futures at many locations this week, providing cash bids close to $5.30 per bushel.
There is still plenty of uncertainty about the U.S. corn crop. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, has harvested just 5 percent amid wet weather. According to one report, Des Moines received nearly 14.5 inches of rain in September alone. Illinois, the nation’s No. 2 corn grower, was at 26 percent harvested, well ahead of its 17 percent five-year average.
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Source: Online/GFMM
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