THE RICE (12.12.2022)
GRAIN MARKET
EU Soft wheat 12.5% proteins Fob Rouen quoted at $ 320-325 /MT vs $ 304/Mt on 14. 02.2022. French Durum Wheat at $ 490-495 / Mt Fob Port La Pallice (vs $ 336/Mt one year ago). Corn FOB Rouen quoted this week $ 303-308/Mt vs $ 274/Mt on 31 Dec -2021. Crude oil WTI went from $/BBL 72.34 on 29 Dec 2021 to $ 70.47 BBL on 10.12. 2022.
SOUTH EAST ASIA RICE MARKET
All prices quoted are FOB main port of origin in 50 kg bags, traditional vessel
Prices of rice exported from Vietnam rose for a third consecutive week to a near 16-month high on robust demand, while a weaker rupee weighed on rates for the staple from top exporter India.
VIETNAM WHITE RICE LONG GRAIN STANDARD 5% BROKEN offered at $450 per tonne free-on-board, its highest since July 2021 and up from $440 /mt quoted 2 weeks ago. However, traders also said some Chinese buyers have switched to cheaper rice from Pakistan and India instead of Vietnam and Thailand. For November, the country's rice exports fell 21.4% from the previous month, government customs data showed.
THAILAND WHITE RICE LONG GRAIN 5% BROKEN rose for a sixth consecutive week to $445 per tonne on Thursday, from $427 per tonne last week. Traders attributed the gains to fluctuations in the domestic currency, despite slowing demand. The supply situation, meanwhile, remained unchanged as new rice continued to enter the market. But despite cheaper offers, a weaker rupee, which increases traders' margins from overseas sales and prompts them to cut export rates, and a lack of demand from big buyers weighed on the Indian market.
INDIA PARBOILED RICE L G IR SORTEX 5% BR quoted at $378 per tonne, down from last week’s $380.
IRAN has completely stopped signing new contracts for importing tea and basmati rice from India since last week. While there is no clarification from Iranian buyers about the reason for this sudden stoppage, Indian exporters believe this is large because shops, hotels and markets in the West Asian country remain closed amid strong anti-hijab movement across the country.
Bangladesh
The State Grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice, traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submission of price offers is Dec. 21. The tender seeks price offers for non-basmati parboiled rice in CIF liner out terms, including ship unloading costs, for shipment to the ports of Chattogram and Mongla. The rice can come from worldwide origins and shipment is required 40 days after the contract award.
KAKINADA PORTS
On 10.12.2022 there are 8 vessels to load a total of 197.000Mt of Milled Rice in total. (27 % less volume to be loaded than 2 weeks ago)
Majority of the vessels designated for West Africa
1 Mv x 28.000 Mt to Cuba
Total so far loaded at 33.000 Mt – Actually 4 vessels with Rice on board.
1st vessel under load arrived in port on 19.11.2022 – Last vessel ETA on 09.12.2022.
HCM Port 1.12.2022 to 10.12.2022 expected:
• 17 vessels to load 90.000 Mt of Rice out of which:
• 12 Vessels to the Philippines -
• 5 Vessel to Indonesia (30.000 Mt)
MYANMAR - PORT
Vessels under load from 1.10.2022 to 10.12.2022
11/10/2022 Mv Vola 26.600 Mt Rice in Bulk
15/10/2022 Mv Agia Ioanna 33.000 Mt Rice in Bulk to Belgium
5/11/2022 Mv VTC Ocean 26.300 Mt Rice Bagged -Bangladesh
6/11/2022 Mv Zircon 7.000 Mt Rice
7/11/2022 Mv Tac Zuzuca 23.000 Mt Rice
24/11/2022 Mv Ant Glory 21.000 Mt Rice to Bangladesh
24/11/2022 Mv MCL 7 2.650 Mt Rice
27/11/2022 Mv MCL 12 3.000 Mt Rice to Bangladesh
04/12/2022 Mv Hai Phuong Glory 4.800 Mt Rice
08/12/2022 Mv MCL 11 5.000 Mt Rice
09/12/2022 Mv MCL 8 2.560 Mt Rice
10/12/2022 Mv Miltiades 25.000 Mt Bulk Rice
10/12/2022 Mv Blue Lotus 12.050 Mt Rice
PAKISTAN PORT
05/10/2022 Mv Evina 11.900 Mt to Madagascar
22/11/2022 Mv Kosman 28.000 Mt Broken to Bissau/WRLG to Abidjan
02/12/2022 Mv RHL Monica 30.000 Mt to WRLG 5 /25 % to Abidjan
04/12/2022 Mv Berlinda 25.000 Mt WRLG 5 % to Abidjan
EUROPE (UK EXCLUDED)
1st Sept 2022 to 10 December 2022 new campaign 2022-2023 (milled basis)
Total imports ………….310.000 Mt vs last year 236.000Mt same period
out of which ………….249.000 Mt Indica Rice Long Grain
Plus ……….................................85.000 Mt of Broken rice (76.000 Mt last year same period).
On the total imports:
Cambodia represented …..45.000 Mt vs 28.000 Mt in Last year's same period
Myanmar ………………………61.000 Mt vs 39.000 Mt in Last year's same period
Basmati Brown and Milled Rice imports (UK not included) at 48.000 Mt against 65.000 Mt in last year's same period (included UK) out of which 30.000 Mt from Pakistan and the balance from Indian origin. EU rice imports are forecast to continue expanding in 2022/23 to 2.300.000 MT, driven by lower domestic production and recovering demand. EU rice consumption in 2022/23 is currently forecast at 3.4-3.500.000 MT, increasing from the current season as activity recovers in line with COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions being eased.
USA – RICE SALES & SHIPMENTS
Milled Rice basis.
18/24 NOV
Sales of 25,300 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for Japan (13,000 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT,), Honduras (3,900 MT), Belgium (300 MT), and Canada (200 MT,).
Shipments of 23,500 MT were primarily to Colombia (11,400 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT), Canada (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (500 MT).
25 Nov -1 Dec
sales of 77,700 MT for 2022/2023
Buyers: Jordan (27,400 MT), Panama (27,000 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT), Morocco (400 MT) and Colombia (100 MT).
Shipments of 8,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (2,900 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (300 MT), and Germany (100 MT).
US cumulative export of 2022-Jan-Oct was down 22 % at 1.7 Mio Mt compared to the same period of 2021.
The total Rice surface harvested in 2021-22 was 2.180.000 acres, a reduction of about -17 % compared to the 2017-2021 average area per year at 2.630.000 acres.
California farmers in 2022 l seeded only 275.000 acres of Rice (Medium and Short grain) due to a large drought affecting the country this year from 400.000 acres in 2021 (-31 %) and lower than in 2020 with 517.000 acres seeded. (-46 %)
USA PADDY FUTURE 05.07.2021 25.02.2022 10.12.2022
Sc/cwt $/Mt $/cwt $/Mt $/cwt $ /mt
SEPT 2021 13.39 295.19
SEPT 2022 15.40 339.50
JAN 2023 16.70 368.17
TURKEY
The 2022/23 forecast for rice production and area harvested remains unchanged at 600,000 MT (milled) and 99,000 ha are expected to be planted.
For 2021/22, rice imports are estimated at 302,000 MT (milled equivalent), which is made up of 287,000 MT of milled rice, 9,700 MT of paddy rice, and 4,800 MT of brown rice.
The leading suppliers of milled rice were China (155,000 MT), Uruguay (45,000 MT), and India (39,000 MT). Meantime, the top sources of paddy rice were Russia (7,700 MT) and Bulgaria (2,000 MT).
In 2021/22, rice exports are estimated slightly lower at 257,000 MT, based on the latest trade statistics.
The main destinations were Syria (72,000 MT), Iraq (49,000 MT), and Libya (30,000 MT).
Osmancik and Baldo Japonica varieties are well-known varieties among farmers and consumers and have dominated the region for many years. However, new Japonica Italian varieties such as Cammeo, Galileo, Ronaldo, and Luna are catching farmers’ attention in terms of high yields and high milling rates and are becoming more popular. According to market sources in 2019/20, new varieties have exceeded 45 percent of all planted areas.
CHINA
Milled rice production in 2022/23 is reduced by 2 MMT to 147 Mio MT (milled basis) because of drought on mid and late-season crops. - China feed demand is expected to use 21-23.000.000 Mt (milled basis) of old Rice Stocks.
Since March 10, 2022, the state reserve sold 23.4 MMT of feed-grade old stock paddy rice through the end of August 2022.
Since 2020, nearly half of China’s rice imports have been broken rice, predominantly from India and Burma for feed as well as for liquor and snack production. From January to July 2022, China imported 2.8 MMT of Indian rice, 2.5 MMT of which was broken rice.
Rice Imports Forecasted in 2022/23 at 6 million Mt due to feeding the demand for Broken Rice. Total exports in the new campaign are forecasted at 2.4 Mio Mt (milled basis)
Ending Stocks 2022/23 forecasted at 107 Mio Mt (vs 116 Mio Mt last year)
PAKISTAN
PKR /$ exchange rate
Dec 2020 = 160.47 PKR = 1 $
16.05.2022 = 192.95 PKR = 1$
10.12.2022 = 227.86 PKR = 1 $
In the first 10 months of 2022 ( Jan-Oct )Pakistan Rice exports to China increased by 40 % reaching the 1.122.000 Mt of different types of rice (including 490.000 Mt of Broken ) versus the 700.000 Mt of the last campaign.
Rice crop arrivals in Sindh were due in October but had been delayed by a month due to recent flooding that inundated large swathes of the country.
Rice exporters in Pakistan are braced for a lackluster year ahead amid fears of at least a 30% drop in production in Sindh due to damage to crops caused by flash floods earlier this year.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Basmati exports plunged to 173,684 tonnes (fetching $182m) in the July-October 2022 period from 229,791 tonnes ($198m), reflecting a drop of 24.4% in quantity and 8.4% in value. Other rice varieties fetched $364m with shipments of 791,676 tonnes compared to $396mn (861,999 tonnes), down 8% each in quantity and value.
Total export 2022 Jan -August ( all rice varieties ): 3.280.000 Mt
Total export 2021 Jan -August ( all rice varieties: 2.100.000 Mt
DESTINATIONS
2022 2021
Middle East 390.000 Mt 275.000
Africa 1.150.000 Mt 1.126.000
Asia 1.270.000 Mt 735.000
Consumer Price Index food inflation in October 2022 increased by 31.70 % over October 2021.
PAKISTAN RICE S & D IN 2021-2022
PRODUCTION = 8.600.000 MT MILLED RICE INCLUDE BASMATI
SUPER BASMATI PRODUCTION = 2.500.000 MT MILLED
INTERNAL CONSUMPTION = 4.000.0000 MT ALL MILLED RICE
EXPORT ALL MILLED RICE = 4.700.000 Mt INCLUDE BASMATI
and Included also Parboiled Rice = 330.000 Mt
EXPORT ONLY MILLED BASMATI = 1.850.000 Mt
RICE CROP AREA PUNJAB 52 % of total crop (Out of which 75 % Basmati) SINDH 38 % of total crop (out of which only 5 % Basmati) BALOCHISTAN 8% of total crop (out of which only 4 % Basmati) Others North 2 %
Production Paddy Rice trend
ALL RICE BASMATI TOTAL AREA
2007/08 5.563.000 MT 2.460.000 MT Basmati 2.515.000 HA
2013/14 6.789.000 MT 2.060.000 MT Basmati 2.308.000 HA
2017/18 7.449.000 Mt 2.815.000 MT Basmati 2.900.000 HA
2022/23 N/A N/A N/A
VIETNAM
23.575 Viet Dong VDN /1 $
Vietnamese rice export prices have stayed high in November, while shipments to China and the Philippines have soared, all contributing to this year’s rice export that is expected to soar to a record high of over seven million tons.
Statistics from the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development showed that the nation shipped some 600,000 tons of rice valued at US$296 million in November, bringing the total volume and value of rice export in the year through November to nearly 6.700.000 tons and US$3.24 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year.
RICE EXPORT MAIN DESTINATION 2022 -JAN-NOV
PHILIPPINES 2.980.000 MT
CHINA 810.000 MT
IVORY COAST 622.000 MT
GHANA 433.000 MT
MALAYSIA 415.000 MT
CUBA 243.000 MT
RICE QUALITY EXPORTED /share on the total volume
White Rice LG 5 % ……………... 17.3 %
White Rice LG 5 % OM 5451 …10 .7 %
White Rice LG 15/25 % ………………… 4.35 %
100 % Broken Rice …………………2.0 %
Fragrant Broken ………………..……4.0 %
Jasmine standard ……………………41.7 % -DT8
Fragrant KDM ………………………....3.5 %
Glutinous Rice …………………………..8.5 %
Japonica Rice …………………………….4.0 %
From the beginning 01st Jan to the end Nov 2022, Vietnam has imported 1,555,000 mt of Paddy rice (in comparison with 1,895,000 mt of paddy rice same period in 2021) mostly from Cambodia. Vietnam also imported 545,000mt of Rice( out of which 50 % was broken rice ) from India (in comparison with 727,000mt same period last year 2021). The 2021/22 total Rice harvest area was down at 7,300,000 Ha, with production forecast at 27 Mio MT (milled Rice approx. the same as last year) considering efforts in adjusting the seedling schedule to prevent drought and salinity intrusion impacts.
RICE EXPORTS 2022
Milled basis
JAN 2022 500.000 MT
FEB 2022 468.000 MT
MARCH 2022 522.000 MT
APRIL 2022 550.000 MT
MAY 2022 730.000 MT
JUNE 2022 720.000 MT
JULY 2022 580.000 MT
AUGUST 2022 727.000 MT
SEPT 2022 582.000 MT
OCT 2022 710.000 MT
NOV 2022 589.000 MT
INDIA
82.42 INR = 1 $ 10 Dec 2022
72.30 INR = 1 $ April 2021
71.02 INR = 1 $ Dec 2019
BASMATI
India's exports of premium basmati rice are likely to jump 15% over last year as key buyers in the Middle East build their inventories despite prices jumping by nearly a quarter.
Higher basmati exports would keep local prices firm, helping Indian farmers earn more by pushing paddy prices up to a record high.
Every buyer is trying to have enough stocks," said former pr India could export more than 4.5 million tonnes in the 2022/23 financial year started on April 1, up 15 % from a year ago, he said. Trade ministry data showed that exports rose 11% to 2.16 million tonnes in the first half of 2022/23.
Export prices for the grain have jumped to over $1,450 per tonne from around $1,160 a year ago.
Higher exports have lifted prices of traditional basmati paddy to a record 60,000 rupees per tonne in India.
India's basmati rice production was expected to jump by around 20% after farmers expanded the area under the crop, but untimely rainfall in September and October capped the upside in the production.
India lowers the year 2022/2023 rice production forecast to 122 Mio MT (vs 130 Mio Mt last campaign) milled rice basis, on reduced plantings and yields in the major rice growing states in the Gangetic Plains as a result of drought-like conditions.
2022/2023 rice exports are forecast to decline to 17 MMT compared to the 2021/2022 record export volume of 21.5 MMT.
Based on the latest official statistics, 2021/2022 ending stocks are now lowered to 35 MMT, with 2022/2023 ending stocks forecast to decline to about 32 MMT.
At the beginning of the next fiscal year on April 1, 2023, India's wheat stocks at state warehouses are expected at 11.3 million tonnes, and rice stocks are seen at 23.7 million tonnes.
• Total Indian Rice Exports went from 9.8 Mio Mt in 2018-2019 to 21 Mio Mt in 2021-2022.
Out of which 7.900.000 Mt were Parboiled Rice (from an average of 4 Mio Mt per Year)
India represented a share of about 80 % of the world Parboiled market in 2021.
THAILAND
34.67 Bath= 1 USD (38.27 on 14 Oct 2022)
The 2022/23 rice production will reach slightly 19.9 million metric tons due to the damage from floods, mainly in the northeastern region. In addition, the floods will likely delay the harvest of 2022/23 fragrant rice until the end of October or early November 2022.
INDIA'S MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE ON PADDY RICE
INR/100 kg $/INR $/mt
2010 1030 45.53 227
2015 1570 64.13 245
2022 2060 77.70 259
Export prices of all grades of rice increased 1-6 percent from the previous week as the Thai baht strengthened to 35.67 baht/$1.00 from the previous week’s exchange rate of 36.02 baht/$1.00. However, supplies of new-crop rice entering the market pushed domestic rice prices down. Domestic prices for fragrant paddy rice and glutinous paddy rice fell 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively, from the previous week. The Cabinet approved a budget of 18.7 billion baht ($526 million) to implement the MY2022/23 rice price guarantee program on November 15, 2022. The Cabinet also approved 55 billion baht ($1.6 billion) for the direct payment program to subsidize rice production costs and 7.5 billion baht ($211 million) for measures to help stabilize domestic rice prices. The measures include a pledging program, a soft loan program for farmer institutions to purchase paddy rice, and an interest rate compensation program for rice millers to hold paddy rice stocks for 2-6 months.
Rice Export
Update Rice exports (excluding Hom Mali fragrant rice) for November 14 – 20, 2022, totaled 136,300 metric tons, down 29,367 metric tons from the previous week and down 13,136 metric tons from the four-week moving average of 149,436 metric tons.
Rice exports from January 1 – November 20, 2022, totaled 5,683,761 metric tons, up 40 percent from the same period last year.
TOTAL ALL RICE EXPORTS from January 1 – 31 Dec 2021 were more than 6.172.000 Mt
Thai Rice exports by Variety (Mt Milled Rice /1000) 2016 % 2020 2021
WHITE RICE 4.820 48.68 2.243 2.358 BROKEN RICE 590 580
PARBOILED RICE 2.150 21.71 1.454 1.474 FRAGRANT 2.500 25.25 2.022 1.500
FRAGRANT BROKEN 241 550 GLUTINOUS RICE 440 4.44 276 310
TOTAL EXPORTS 9.900 100 5.724 6.272
➢ Thailand's highest total quantity exported was in 2017: 11.650.000 Mt
THE TOP SIX EXPORT MARKETS FOR THAI RICE IN JAN-JULY 2022 WERE:
Iraq 789.000 Mt WRLG (vs 125.000 in the same period in 2021)
USA 424.000 Mt WRLG & Aromatic (Vs 294.000 Mt s/p last year)
South Africa 418.000 Mt Parboiled (Vs 385.000 Mt s/p last/year)
China 334.000 Mt (Vs 195.000 Mt s/p last year)
Japan 175.000 Mt (same as l/y)
Senegal 139.000 Mt Fragrant Broken (same as l/y)
MYANMAR
2.101 Kyat = 1 $ (vs 1770 in Nov 2021)
The Burmese Department of Agriculture reported that farmers have planted 6.042 million hectares of main crop rice in marketing year 2022/23 and have harvested about 16 % of the planted acreage as of October 30, 2022.
EXPORTS 2022 JAN-NOV
VIA YANGON PORT: 1.720.000 MT (650.000 MT BROKEN)
VIA CHINA BORDER: 230.000 MT (150.000 MT BROKEN)
MILLED RICE EXPORTS TREND 2021-2022
Total Exports 2021 1.900.000 Mt
January 2022 315.000 Mt
February 2022 191.000 Mt
March 2022 198.000 Mt
April 2022 206.000 Mt
May 2022 197.000 Mt
June 2022 185.000 Mt
July 2022 97.000 Mt
August 2022 126.000 Mt
September 22 94.000 Mt
October 22 172.000 Mt
November 2022 264.000 Mt
Total Export 2022 2.090.000 Mt
CAMBODIA
Estimates marketing the year 2022/23 rice production at 5.9 million metric tons (milled basis), down slightly from last month, but up 3% from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, down 1% from last month, but up 1% from last year. Yield (rough) is estimated at a record 2.94 tons/hectare, up 1% from last month and 2% from last year.
Cambodia’s milled rice export rose by 10.6 percent to 509,249 tons in January-October 2022, according to a report from the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) on Saturday.
China remained the biggest buyer of Cambodia’s milled rice during the period, the report pointed out. The milled rice export to China was at 231,873 tons, sharing 45% of the total export.
Around 25 countries in the European Union, bought 179,073 tons of milled rice, accounting for 35 % of the total export.
Of the rice varieties exported in ten months the varieties were:
190,790 tons of Premium aromatic rice,
153,561 tons of Sen Kra Ob (fragrant rice),
144, 672 tons of long-grain white rice,
11,815 tons of parboiled rice,
8,388 tons of organic milled rice,
23 tons of glutinous rice.
Cambodia also exported 2.4 million tons of paddy rice through the official channels to neighboring countries (Vietnam and Thailand)
The CRF targets up to 800,000 tons of milled rice for export this year.
In 2021, 610,000 milled rice was exported.
Forecasts 2022/2023 Rice harvested area and production to 3,345.000 ha and 9.7 Mio MT,
(paddy basis) respectively.
Total exports in 2021/22 are expected to reach 1.400.000 Mt (milled basis).
China is the main market for Cambodian rice, accounting for approximately 50% of the official market share in 2021/2022.
With the lift of European Union safeguard measures, Cambodia expects an increase of milled rice exports to Europe in 2022/23 to 200,000 MT from around 155,000 MT in 2021/22
Vietnam imported approximately 690,000 MT of milled rice equivalent from Cambodia in 2021/22. Fragrant rice continued to account for the largest share of exports, at 74%.
AUSTRALIA
Rice production in Australia is forecast to fall by 51% in 2022–23 to 340,000 tonnes, largely driven by a 47% fall in plantings. This comes as widespread flooding in southern New South Wales and extreme rainfall in late spring have prevented many growers from accessing their paddocks. Wet and mild conditions extending to summer are also likely to result in poor emergence and yield prospects.
BANGLADESH
The price of coarse and medium rice in the country has spiked by two to three taka per kg in the past week. According to the government, there is a surplus rice stock. Fearing an impending crisis, the food ministry has already started importing one million tonnes of rice from three countries. The ministry also gave permission to the private sector to import one million tonnes of rice at reduced duty. Amid this, a delegation of six members including the minister of food, secretary and director general of the food directorate is visiting three countries.
The six members including food minister S. C. Majumder, food secretary Ismail Hossain and director general of the food directorate S. Hossain went to Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand to discuss rice import.
Last September, Bangladesh signed an agreement to buy 230,000 tonnes of rice from Vietnam at the government level (G2G). Apart from this, 100,000 tonnes of rice is being bought from India and 200,000 tonnes from Myanmar. Parboiled rice is being bought from Vietnam at $521 per tonne and 'atap' rice at $494 per tonne. Although Vietnam will provide atap rice from its own market, it will provide parboiled rice from Thailand.
BRAZIL 5.21 BRL = 1 USD
Forecast for rice planted area for 2022/2023 (April 2023 – March 2024) to 1.58 million hectares (ha), down 1.3 percent from its previous forecast of 1.6 million hectares. This figure is an all-time low for Brazil, as the rice continues to lose space in the country, with farmers switching to more profitable crops that require less maintenance, such as soybean or corn.
National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil’s rice-planted area decreased by around 33 percent from 2011/2012 to 2021/2022.
Forecast for milled rice production at 7.3 million metric tons of milled rice equivalent (an equivalent of 10.6 Mio MT of paddy rice) in 2022/2023.
Rio Grande do Sul:
(EMATER/RS) calculates that the state, responsible for almost 60 percent of the forecasted planted area, will plant 862 thousand hectares of rice during the 2022/2023 season, a 10 percent drop in comparison to the 2021/2022 harvest.
Santa Catarina:
This state is responsible for almost 10 percent of the rice area in Brazil. (EPAGRI/SC), the initial crop forecast points to an average planted area of around 147 thousand hectares, just below the extension registered in the previous cycle.
Total Milled Rice exports Jan-Oct 2022 reached 1.500.000 Mt.
2022 Total imported Rice expected at 870.000 Mt( out of which 270.000 Mt of Brown Rice )
From January to September 2022, Paraguay accounted for 97 percent of all imports of paddy rice to Brazil.
Paraguay also accounts for 2022 for 70 % of the Milled Rice imported from Brazil, with Uruguay at 18 % and Argentina at 12 % of the total imports.
The Brazilian government’s measure announced at the end of May to adopt a 10 percent reduction in the import tax of various commodities, among which is rice, remains valid until December 2023.
Stocks end 2022 estimated at 270-300.000 Mt ( milled rice basis ) which is 50 % lower than the previous year.
Paddy Rice Long Grain RGS Porto Alegre at Rs 85 min to 90 max /50 kg ex-farm gate –RGS $/Mt 326 min /345 max. One Year ago the Paddy was Rs 60/50 kg = $ 225/Mt = Rs 1.20/kg
MILLED RICE BASIS - EXPORT 2022 campaign
Broken Rice 442.000 Mt (Senegal 290.000/Gambia 86.000/ EU 65.000)
Brown Rice 72.000 Mt ( Spain, Portugal)
Milled Rice 289.000 Mt (Cuba 134.000, Peru, USA, 36.000 Mt Parboiled)
Paddy Rice 570.000 Mt =340.000 Mt Milled
Venezuela 20 %
Mexico 60 %
Guatemala 5 %
URUGUAY
➢ TOTAL 2022 EXPORTS FROM JAN 1 TO 30 Nov 2022: 1.000.000 Mt out of which:
➢ 53 % was Milled Rice & Broken, Brown Rice at 20 %, Paddy at 27 %
➢ EU represented 20 % of the Uruguayan export
➢ Africa represented less than 3 % of total exports mainly Broken
➢ South America's shares of total exports reached 39 %
➢ Middle East represented less than 3 % of total exports.
The main Buyers in 2022 were
Brazil 14 % of total exports
Mexico 9 %
EU 15 %
PERU 17 %
Iraq 19 %
Turkey 6 %
Venezuela 8 %
UK 4 %
ARGENTINA
ARS 65 = 1 $ APRIL 2020
ARS 113 = 1 $ APRIL 2022
ARS 133.4 = 1 $ AUG 06 -2022
ARS 169.93 = 1$ DEC 10 -2022
The Argentinian General Administration of Ports (AGP) will start charging a toll along the Paraguay-Parana waterway, the Argentine Ministry of Transport announced.
The waterway is used by 20,000 barges annually, including international cargo, and is responsible for moving 80% of Argentina's exports, reported AgriCensus.
The government said some areas could charge $1.47/MT. Total Export in the first 8 months of 2022 reached the 360.000 Mt
The 2022-2023 production is forecast at 800,000 tons, milled base
PARAGUAY
Production of rice in 2022/2023 is forecast at 1.120.000 tons, Paddy basis, 19% higher than the current crop which was severely affected by drought. The area is projected to increase to 170,000 hectares, the same area that had been projected to be planted in 2021/2022 but was not achieved due to dry conditions.
Exports of rice in 2022/2023 are forecast to recover to 630,000 metric tons, milled basis, following disappointing results in 2021/2022 when a severe drought negatively affected production and are expected to lower exports to 500,000 metric tons
Brazil, which in the past several years was the destination of 65-70% of Paraguay’s rice exports, is projected to account for even more of the coming crop. Rice local consumption for 2022/2023 is forecast at 120,000 tons, milled basis.
INDONESIA
Indonesia's state food procurement agency Bulog said that it has been assigned by the Government to import rice to improve national reserves which currently stand at 594,000 tonnes. Bulog chief executive Budi Waseso said recently that the agency plans to procure an additional 500,000 tonnes of rice from local farmers. Arief Prasetyo Adi, chairman of the National Food Agency (Bapanas), said that the reserves could drop to 342,000 tonnes by year-end if there is no new supply. Indonesia is aiming to secure 1.2 million tonnes of rice reserves by year-end.
PHILIPPINES
The country imported 3.37 million metric tons (MT) of rice in November, 34.14 percent more than the 2.51 million MT brought in in the same period last year. The latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that the figure is 21.43 percent higher than the 2.77 million MT that arrived for the whole of 2021. Vietnam was still the country’s top supplier, cornering 83.4 percent of the total volume at 2.81 million MT, 18 percent higher than the 2.36 million MT imported as of the end of last year. Myanmar came in second with 215,918.18 MT and Thailand with 166,501.37 MT.
MARKET PRICES
All in $ /Metric ton, FOB port of origin in 50 Kg traditional vessels
10.12
2022
115 Weeks before
Variatio % THAILAND
WRLG 100% B
455
545.-
¨- 16 %
WRLG 5%
445
535.-
WRLG 15%
440
523.-
WRLG 25%
430
500.-
100 % BR A1 S
413
442.-
FRAGRANT BR A1 S STX
435
470.-
PARBOILED LG 100% STX
450
535.-
FRAGRANT HOM MALI 92 % PURE 2021-22
960
1,050. -
FRAGRANT HOM MALI 92 % PURE 2022-23
790
PHATUMTAHNI 100 B 22-23
690
N/A
VIETNAM ( FCL premium USD 10 /Mt )
BIG Bags premium USD 12/Mt in FCL
WRLG 5 % broken standard
450
WRLG OM5451 with 5 % br DP Srtx
480
chalky max 8%
WRLG 25 % broken standard
425
100 Broken Rice
N/A
100 % BRKN FRGRNT Sortex DP
435
DT8 LG Fragrant wm dp 5% (6.6-6.5mm)
495
Africa- quality Fragrant
Jasmine Nang Hoa 5 % br Srtx
545
Viet KDM-new W/S crop
KDM Fragrant rice 5 % Srtx
590
Paddy Cambodian origin
ST 24 Long Grain Fragrant Stx dp 5%
885
top Viet aromatic
INDIA
WRLG IR 64 DP SRTX 5 % BR
380
WRLG 25 % STANDARD
375
100 % BROKEN WM SRTX
N/A
Stop export
WRMG SWARNA 5 %
415
PARBOILED RICE LG SORTX 5 %
380
BASMATI PURE 2 % BR. SRTX DP
1300
Fob in fcl
BROWN BASMATI PURE NATURAL EU SPECS
N/A
Fob in fcl
PAKISTAN FOB VESSEL=FOB FCL KARACHI PORT
IRRI 6 LG White Rice, 5% Broken, sortexed
445
IRRI 6 LG White Rice 15% Broken, sortexed
435
IRRI 6 LG White Rice 25% Broken, sortexed
430
IRRI 6 LG White Rice 25% Broken reason.well milled
420
100% Broken, WR DP Sortexed
405
PARBOILED LG Sortexed 5% Broken
470
S. KERNEL BASMATI WHITE 2% BR DP SRTX
1200
BROWN S/K BASMATI NATURAL SRTX
980
CAMBODIA (Fob in Containers)
Phka Malis Jasmine 90 % pure WRLG Srtx
760
Sen Kra Ob Fragrant Rice 5 % Pure LG
730
WR 5451 LG 5 % Sortex
535
Organic Premium WRLG Jasmin 5 % BR
N/A
MYANMAR
WR EMATA 5 % BR WM SRTX
445
WR EMATA 25 % BR STANDARD EXPORT SPECS
420
BROKEN B1+B2 SRTX
405
PARBOILED RICE WM SRTX 5 %
530
URUGUAY ($/MT l Bagged FOB vessel)
WRLG 5 PCT STANDARD EXPORT SPECS
575
WRLG 5 % Olimar Variety
600
PARBOILED LG 5 % SORTEX LG
600
ARGENTINA $/Mt FOB bagged upriver
WRLG 5 % STANDARD
550
BRAZIL ($/Mt BAGGED FOB R GRANDE do Sul port)
WRLG 5 % BR STANDARD EXPORT SPECS
570
BROKEN RICE SRTX DAKAR QUALITY
405
PARBOILED LG SORTEX 5 % BR
580
USA FOB $/Mt
WRLG N2 /4 % BR V W Milled
715
Gulf port bagged
WR MG CALROSE N 1/4 % Br
1770
Japan quality In FCL Oakland
BROKEN RICE–SECOND HEAD
555
FOB vessel Bagged US Gulf Port
ITALY
Paddy Rice ex-farm gate-average Euro/Mt Bulk F.O.T Campaign 1/09/2021 to 10.12.2022
Euro/Mt
Paddy
Euro/Mt
Milled Rice
ROUND GRAIN JAPONICA STANDARD
670
RG JAP SELENIO SUSHI TYPE
NA
MEDIUM GRAIN JAPONICA
NA
LONG GRAIN JAPONICA ARBORIO
1050
LG J BALDO
820
LG J CARNAROLI
1300
LONG GRAIN B -INDICA
480-500
WHITE MILLED BROKEN more or= ½ grain
600
• Italian Farmers already sold and delivered 360.000 Mt Paddy to the Millers on new crop 2022-2023 vs 570.000 mt last campaign same period.
• Total import 2022-2023 campaign on 10.12.2022 reached 30.000 Mt vs 34.000 Mt last campaign same period.
• Sept 1st, 2021 to 30 August 2022 – (last campaign) Total imports were at 177.000 Mt (68 % Indica vs 122.000 Mt in 2020-2021) which included 48.000 Mt of Basmati (91 % from Pakistan) and 77.000 Mt of Myanmar Rice (Low quality 25 % & broken)
CHINA PADDY RICE FUTURES MARKET (6.97 Yuan /1 $)
10.05.2021 25.02.2022 10.12.2022
China Paddy Futures $/MT Month Month $/Mt $ /Mt
Japonica Round Grain 374 Oct-March 429 Jan 410.00
Late Indica Long Grain 460 Oct-March 471 Jan 338.50
Early Rice Long Shape 400 Oct-March 459 Jan 356.00
FREIGHT RATES
SHANGHAI SCFI CONTAINER FREIGHT INDEX
30 Sept 2021 4614.10
07 Jan 2022 5109.60
22 April 2022 4195.98
25 June 2022 4216.13
19 August 2022 3428.83
30 Sept 2022 1922.95
30 Oct 2022 1697.65
14 Nov 2022 1443.29
25 Nov 2022 1229.90 - 73.4 % on Sept 2021
10 Dec 2022 1171.36
CONTAINER RATE /24.5 Mt Basis Bulk Milled Rice BANGKOK /WEST COAST AFRICA $ 80-85 /Mt HCMC / CAMBODIA to EU PORTS $ 78/80 /Mt WEST COAST INDIA /EU PORTS $ 90/95 /Mt The Baltic Dry index, which measures the cost of traditional grain ship worldwide moved last week from 1324 points to 1386 on 10 Dec 2022. May 2022 index value was at 3369 points. December 2021 index value was at 3424 points. October 2021 index value was at 5600 points. TRADITIONAL VESSEL RATE -30.000 Mt /40.000 Mt SIZE-bulk or bagged rice BANGKOK -WEST AFRICA $ 60-65 /Mt EAST INDIA -WEST AFRICA $ 65-70 /Mt HCMC -WEST AFRICA $ 70-73 /Mt.
By: GAOTRADE SAS - Commodities, Franco Negri, Grain Consultants |& Brokers
gaotradesas@gmail.com
Source:
Email/GFMM
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