Food inflationary pressures are
not abating. According to the updated data from the World Bank, the food inflation
rate was high in most countries of the world in the last quarter of 2022.
Organizations like World Bank and IMF think that food prices will remain high
this year as well.
Zimbabwe had the highest food
inflation in the last quarter of 2022. The real food inflation rate in the
country stood at 121 percent, compared to the same quarter of 2021. Next is
Lebanon, whose food inflation rate was 29 percent.
According to the data of the
World Bank, food prices in the world market are still somewhat stable from
December 2022 to this January. The agricultural index of the organization is
the same. Maize and wheat prices fell by 1 and 2 percent respectively. However,
the price of rice increased by 1 percent. However, in the current month of
January, the price of corn and rice in the world market is 8 and 13 percent
higher than in the month of January 2022.
Meanwhile, it was learned last
week that in December, the food price inflation rate in developed countries
like the United Kingdom was 16.3 percent, which is the highest in 46 years.
Inflation rates have been high in developed countries including the UK for a
year, especially food inflation. As a result, private organizations like Save
the Children in the UK have undertaken various programs.
2022 was an overall high
inflation year. Inflation reached record highs in almost all countries of the
world as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. There was no end to the misery of
people especially due to food inflation. According to Reuters news, food
prices were the highest in 2022 after 1990.
The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) publishes the Food Price Index every
month. It showed that the average value of FAO's food price index in 2022 was
143.7 decimal points. This is the highest level since FAO introduced the index
in 1990. According to the index, the price index value increased by 18 points
in 2022 compared to 2021. As a result, food inflation has reached 14.3 percent
in 2022. Food prices have not increased at the same rate in all countries.
Again, the impact of the increase in food prices is not the same in all
countries.
Food transport was disrupted in
March-April 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, FAO prices rose to
record highs. In March of that year, the food price index rose to a maximum of
159.7.
Then till April, May and June, it
was 158.4, 158.1 and 154.7 respectively. In August, it fell to 140 in one fell
swoop. After that, food prices continued to fall. Last December it came down to
132.4. The overall average value for the year stands at 143.7.
The world's largest wheat-producing countries are Russia and Ukraine. After the start of the war, Ukraine
could not export wheat for several months. As a result, the price of wheat has
increased a lot all over the world including in Bangladesh. In addition, due to
the increase in the price of fuel due to the war and the disruption of the
supply system, inflation rose again.
Also, in 2022, it will be very
hot almost everywhere in the world. Not only Bangladesh has suffered from
extreme heat, but the whole world has suffered. Wildfires spread across Europe.
A video of people frying eggs in the sun in the UK has gone viral on social
media. High heat has disrupted food production in many countries. Analysts say
that the world is becoming like a burning furnace. UN Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres said in this context, "Mankind is moving towards suicide."
According to the World Bank
report, the price of fertilizers tripled after 2020. Although farmers in
developed countries will not have much problem, small farmers in low and middle-income countries will suffer. Agricultural production will be disrupted. The
World Bank believes that the food cycle will be destabilized in 2023 and 2024.
It has affected 20.5 crore people in 45 countries of the world. Sub-Saharan
regions are particularly mentioned. Countries in the region import fertilizers
directly from Russia and Belarus. They will not get fertilizer due to the ban.
Again, as Europe stops receiving Russian gas, the cost of fertilizer production
will also increase.
In this context, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks that food prices in the world will
remain high in the current year 2023. War, high fuel prices, extreme
weather—these are the reasons they identify. As food insecurity increased due
to record food price hikes last year, so did social unrest. There is pressure on
the budget of food-importing countries.
According to the research of the South
Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) a private research institute of the
country, the majority of the expenditure of low-income or poor people goes
towards food. Urban marginal groups spend an average of 61.31 percent of total
expenditure on food. In the case of rural marginalized groups, it is 65.36 percent.
This is more or less the case everywhere in the world. The situation is such
that even people in developed countries like the UK are struggling to meet food
costs. Many people are reducing the amount of food on their plates - such news
is being published in various media.
A study by the International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has shown that children will suffer in the
first 1,000 days of life due to food inflation. This will disrupt the
development of children from rural landless families in low and middle-income
countries. As their education will be disrupted due to an increase in food prices,
their future employment will also be affected. As a result, they will not be
able to fully develop life.
Source:
Online/GFMM
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