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Thailand's rice exports are teetering on the brink of crisis and threatened by possible policy changes in India. The Thai Rice Exporters Association cast a shadow over next year's outlook, predicting that exports could flop below the eight million tonne mark.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, the associationโs honorary president, revealed the unsettling news despite unabated flooding wreaking havoc in the north and northeast.
This yearโs exports, however, seem to be riding the storm, with hopes still high of surpassing the 8.2 million tonnes annual target. Should monthly exports hover around 600,000 tonnes, the total might even spike to nine million tonnes.
Enter Indonesiaโs rice import agency, Bulog, which has been snapping up supplies through monthly tenders averaging about 450,000 tonnes.
Yet, Thai rice has been struggling to hit the bullseye on tender prices, losing out to more wallet-friendly options from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan. Thanks to La Niรฑaโs generous rainfall, these countries have ramped up rice production, flooding the global market with supply.
Global rice prices
India, eyeing a grand comeback, might resume exporting white rice in the fourth quarter of the year. This move is set to stoke the competition, likely driving global rice prices into a nosedive and dragging down domestic prices in Thailand, the association warns.
The US Department of Agricultureโs crystal ball sees India reigning as the worldโs top rice exporter by 2025 with a whopping 20 million tonnes on the move, with Thailand and Vietnam trailing far behind at 7.5 million each, and Pakistan at 5.6 million.
The association cautions that 2025 could hit a sour note for Thailand. With Indiaโs export resurgence and a robust baht squeezing the market, Thai rice exports might plummet to a meagre seven to 7.5 million tonnes.
Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin recently cracked open the Thai Rice Networking Forum 2024, a grand affair aimed at bolstering the local rice market and shoring up confidence amongst trading partners in Thailandโs rice policies.
Despite the stormy forecast, Thailandโs rice exports have been on an upward swing. In the first seven months of 2024, the nation shipped out 5.68 million tonnes, marking a 22% year-on-year boom and raking in a handsome 132 billion baht, up 51% from the previous year.
Bangkok Post reported the surge is fuelled by rice importers racing to fill their granaries in light of Indiaโs export restrictions and the growing need for food security.
Source: Online/GFMM
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