Desk Report: For market year (MY) 2019/20 (May-April), total rice area and production levels are projected to increase slightly to 11.8 million hectares (HA) and 35.3 million metric tons (MMT), assuming good weather and increased yield. MY 2019/20 rice imports are expected to decrease to 500,000 MT due to a higher level of domestic production that largely meets demand.
For MY 2019/20, wheat imports are forecast at 6.3 MMT to meet the demand of a growing population, greater diversified use, and expectations of low international prices. Corn imports in MY 2019/20 are also forecast to rise to 2 MMT based on increased feed demand from the expanding poultry sector.
For MY 2019/20 (May-April), total rice area and production levels are projected to increase slightly to 11.8 million hectares (HA) and 35.3 million metric tons (MMT), assuming good weather and increased yield due to further cultivation of hybrid and high yield varieties (HYV). In MY 2018/19, total rice area and production are revised down to 11.77 million HA and 34.9 MMT respectively. MY 2019/20 rice imports are expected to rise to 500,000 MMT to fill the supply gap between three rice harvesting seasons.
MY 2019/20 wheat area and production are forecast upward to 340,000 HA and 1.15 MMT based on strong prices in MY 2018/19 and good weather. MY 2019/20 corn area and production estimate is up to 445,000 HA and 3.45 MMT due to increased demand in the feed industry to meet consumers’ preference for more protein in their diet.
For MY 2019/20, corn imports are forecast at 2 MMT because of growing feed demand and expectations of low international prices.
Commodities: Rice Milled Production: For MY 2019/20 (May-April), total rice area and production levels are projected to increase slightly to 11.8 million hectares (HA) and 35.3 million metric tons (MMT), assuming normal weather conditions and increased yield due to greater HYV and hybrid cultivation area. Winter (Boro) season rice area is forecast to increase as farmers are expected to switch to rice from wheat and minor vegetables. Contacts believe that farmers will continue cultivating Boro season rice considering it to be a comparatively lower risk crop.
In MY 2018/19, total rice area and production is revised down to 11.77 million HA and 34.9 MMT. During the Boro season, a significant number of farmers use two seed varieties: BARI Dhan 28 and BRRI Dhan 29, which some contacts believe are becoming more vulnerable to insects and disease. Some farmers use Indian-developed seed varieties because they believe it is hardier or drought tolerant.
Trade: MY 2019/20 rice import forecast is projected lower to 500,000 MT due to increased total supplies because of higher production. MY 2018/19 import estimate is down to 575,000 MT because of slow import pace, likely caused by the application of a very high tariff and higher domestic production. Bangladesh primarily imports rice from India and Pakistan. India has been the largest supplier in recent years.
Stocks: According to the Ministry of Food (MOF), as of March 19, 2019, public rice stocks are 1.37 MMT, which is approximately 33 percent higher than last year. From December 1, 2018 to March 3, 2019, the MOF procured 799,966 MT of monsoon (Aman rice) season rice at BDT 36 (US$ 0.42) per kilogram.
Source: Online
SZK
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