With outlooks for production and consumption of total grains (wheat and coarse grains) trimmed, the forecast for world stocks at the end of 2019/20 is raised slightly m/m (month-on-month). At an all-time high of 386m t, the forecast for trade (Jul/Jun) is lifted by 6m m/m, including higher numbers for wheat, maize, barley and sorghum. Increases for maize, barley, oats and wheat boost the projection for production in 2020/21 by 7m t m/m, to a record 2,237m, an increase of 62m y/y (year-on-year). The figure for consumption is the same m/m, as a cut for demand in the industrial sector is offset by upward adjustments for food and feed. Higher opening inventories and larger output add 8m t to the projection for world 2020/21 ending stocks, seen building by 20m t y/y, to a three-season high of 635m. Mostly on an upgrade for wheat shipments, grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is placed 3m t higher m/m, at 390m.
The Council’s 2019/20 world soyabean output estimate is pegged marginally higher m/m and, with uptake trimmed slightly, global stocks are raised by 3m t, to 44m, representing a marked tightening y/y. Linked to heavier than expected shipments to China, the trade outlook is upgraded to a peak of 155m t, a 2% y/y gain. A nominal increase for Brazil lifts the projection for 2020/21 global production to 364m t, up by 8% y/y and a record. Mainly reflecting higher opening stocks, carryovers are boosted to 45m t, a modest y/y expansion. Given assumed firm import demand from China, world trade is placed at a peak of 160m t, up 1m m/m.
With few changes to the 2019/20 global rice supply and demand balance sheet from previously, end-season carryovers are maintained at 176m t, a record level on gains in China and leading exporters. The 2020/21 production outlook is trimmed m/m, with the net reduction in total supplies leading to a modestly lower figure for inventories, placed at 180m t, albeit still a new high. The projection for trade in 2021 is unchanged m/m, at 44m t (+4% y/y).
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) strengthened by 1% m/m, with gains for maize, soyabean and rice export quotations outweighing falls for wheat and barley. Find more…